Markets, Retirement

The Bull Market Continues To Attract New Investors

1/30/18 8:00 AM

iStock_000018447826_Small-1-1.jpgThere are now more “401(k) millionaires” than ever before, according to recent data from Fidelity Investments. Specifically, there were 133,000 401(k) savings accounts administered by Fidelity at the end of the third quarter of 2017 with a balance of at least $1 million. That is nearly a 50 percent jump from a year earlier, and likely a figure that continued to rise during the final three months of 2017. Indeed, one of the main drivers of growth in 401(k) balances is investment performance, and the benchmark S&P 500 index increased by 6.1 percent in Q4, its largest quarterly gain in two years.

The market melt-up has continued in 2018 and it is attracting more and more new money with each record close. For example, $33.2 billion poured into global stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds earlier this month, one of the largest weekly inflows on record. Further, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab, and other discount brokerages have reported surges in client activity at the end of 2017 that have accelerated in January, according to the Wall Street Journal. Many firms attribute this influx of new capital to retail (individual) investors opening brokerage accounts for the first time. That is encouraging since a combination of saving and long-term participation in the stock market is one of the best ways to ensure a comfortable and financially secure retirement. However, investing in equities is not without risk, and the sooner these new market entrants can learn this the better.

As a result, it may be worth reviewing the importance of diversification, particularly when it works, and when it does not. Indeed, diversification in its simplest form is akin to the old adage “do not put all of your eggs in one basket,” because investing all of your money in a single stock means that your wealth will depend solely on the performance of that one asset. Doing this could provide excellent returns for a while if the stock happens to outperform the overall market. However, this would also expose you to the idiosyncratic risks associated with the company, e.g. industry-specific problems, new competition, currency fluctuations, bankruptcy, etc., all of which have the potential to more than wipe out any unrealized gains. Diversification therefore requires that a basket of uncorrelated investments is constructed so that one can still benefit from strong performance but limit the exposure to the risks associated with any single asset.

Most retirement investors likely understand this concept and will therefore try to invest in a handful of companies that they are familiar with. Too often, though, such asset mixes chosen by retail investors will still be inadequate for a “properly” diversified portfolio. For example, the total number of investments could still be too small, or the portfolio weightings may be too high in one or more assets. For the former it is important not to think that the goal should be to own as many different stocks as possible, because research has shown that the benefits of diversification start to diminish after only a few dozen stocks as a portfolio’s returns and risk profile begin to converge to that of the entire market, e.g. the S&P 500. Investors must also understand that there are times when even a well-diversified stock portfolio will not provide a lot of protection.

Many examples of this were seen during the financial crisis, when scared investors across the globe rushed for the exits and caused stock correlations to spike, i.e. equities that normally would not have traded similarly are suddenly moving in lockstep. Put simply, spreading your money across a wide variety of stocks can help reduce the risks associated with any particular company or industry but exposure to a broad market selloff will not be eliminated. To help protect against the latter, a retirement portfolio must therefore be diversified not just in stock allocations but also asset classes. More conservative instruments like bonds can act as such a hedge since this asset class sometimes performs well when equities are underperforming. This is especially true for U.S. Treasury’s, the “global safe-haven,” when markets are in a “risk-off,” “flight-to-safety” mode.

Of course, if you do not plan to hold everything all the way to maturity then even government bonds can be a risky investment, particularly during a rising interest rate environment like the one we may very well be entering. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other alternatives exist to help provide additional portfolio diversification but one should not forget about cash. Indeed, leaving some money on the sidelines, or in highly liquid cash-like instruments, can help one take advantage of market corrections by providing the means for picking up shares of great companies at a discount. Like most investing issues, though, diversification is not an exact science, meaning that there is not a single formula for constructing a “well-diversified” portfolio that everyone should follow.

This is because what is right for one person may not be appropriate for another since factors like risk appetite and nearness to retirement must be taken into consideration. Ultimately, it is nearly impossible to completely eliminate risk from a portfolio but it is possible to reduce one’s exposure to many “known unknowns.” Doing so, though, may be intimidating for many novice investors, which is why consulting with a financial advisor can often provide a lot of help. In fact, a report from Charles Schwab found that nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of surveyed 401(k) participants who said that they regularly work with a financial advisor reported being “extremely or very confident” in their ability to make the right investment decisions for their retirement plan, compared to just 44 percent for respondents who do not seek professional advice.



Sources: Fidelity Investments, CNBC, BofAML, WSJ, JFQA, Charles Schwab

Post author: Charles Couch